The Iowa caucus results have Canadian born Rafael Cruz as the lead GOPe candidate. What does that mean? Not much. Since 1972 Iowa has led off the nomination process, but their record of picking winners is dismal. They have picked the republican nominee 50% of the time and the communist candidate 63%. Wiki says 43%, but 7 of 11 is 63%.
On the republican side that 50% sounds good until you consider that in 1984 Reagan ran unopposed, in 1992 Bush Sr ran unopposed, and in 2004 W ran unopposed. Wiki only lists ten for the GOP because the Republicans didn't start caucusing until 1976. So, ten total, three unopposed means seven chances to really pick and they got two right.
While it might be fun to watch the caucus take place, it is a far cry from predicting who will be nominated. Its like the qualification heats at a NASCAR event. It has no bearing on whether you will win unless you don't qualify.
The best summation I can think of is this; An auctioneer was called to testify at a trial. After being sworn in, he was asked to state his name for the record.
Colonel Bill Johnson he replied.
"Colonel!" exclaimed the judge, are you in the Army, Air Force, or Marines?"
"I am not in the military" replied the Auctioneer.
"Do you command a regiment? Are you part of the militia? Queried the judge.
The auctioneer turned to the jury and said, "Colonel in my line of work is like Your Honor in court. We all use it, but it don't mean a darn thing."
So, Cruz won Iowa? Don't mean a darn thing.
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