We'll be back

As the flags come down and the last troops depart Iraq, I get an unsettling feeling that this is not the end, but only an interlude. After WW1 allied troops remained a short time, and then departed for home. Much fanfare was made as our troops marched in victory through New York, then quietly went to their homes and lives. Meanwhile, in Germany, hate simmered.
We had established a government, Wiemar to lead Germany on a path of peace. That peace lasted less then fifteen years. Unrest was the norm, The Germans did not know how to govern themselves, and soon a dictator rose, a man who would bring a great cloud of darkness to Europe and much of the world.
We did a better job after WW2. We stuck in there for a decade, then another one, then another. In fact, we are still very much there. Germany will likely never again be a dark cloud over Europe. Today they are leaders and seek peace. It took a generation and then some to create a free nation that will remain a beacon for years to come.
Another example is the Balkans, This time though, its a bad example. After the death of Tito, and the decline of Soviet influence, the people of Macedonia, Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia returned to the conflicts which fueled the first world war. It became necessary for the nations of Europe and  America to intervene and impose a peace process. It is shaky at best.
Iraq is propped up. they have a government in place, elections were held, but their problems are far from over. Terrorism still reigns. In Germany, terror attacks did not cease until the late 80's. Iraq has much to deal with. They are surrounded by nations that wish them ill. Iran and Syria are state sponsors of terrorism. democracy is a fledgling idea in the sea of islamic hate and sharia law. The Iraqi government has its work cut out. Can they succeed? I doubt it.
The two dominant strains of islam in Iraq are the sunni and shiite. The sunni are a minority no longer in power. the shiites are dominant in Iran where any idea of democracy are quickly squelched by the ruling imams. I do not see them remaining a democratic people for long.
My guess is six to eight years. The Russians have been experiencing democracy in some form for nearly twenty years, yet they too are at risk of back sliding. Iraq may well return to a dictatorial power and relations with Iran will falter. Wedged as they are between two terrorist regimens, they will not be allowed to grow in peace.
Unless Iran is attacked by either the US or Israel, they will stir problems for Iraq. This aint gonna be purdy.